The Impact of the U.S.-China Tariff War on International Trade
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56741/jgi.v4i02.957
Keywords:
Export, Import, International Trade, Trade Deficit, Trade Surplus
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the trade flows (imports, exports, and re-exports) of the world's two largest economies, namely China and the United States, during the period 2020 to 2023. Trading data is measured in USD units and includes three main types of trading flows. The visualization results show that China consistently maintains a trade surplus, with the value of exports always exceeding imports every year. In contrast, the United States shows a trade deficit trend, with the value of imports significantly higher than exports and re-exports. In addition, the role of re-exports in the trade structure of the United States showed a significant contribution, although not enough to balance the deficit. These findings provide important insights for global economic analysis and international trade policy, especially in the context of the dynamics of economic relations between the two superpowers.
Downloads
References
S. Kokovin, P. Molchanov, and I. Bykadorov, “Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade: Revisiting gains from trade,” J. Int. Econ., vol. 137, p. 103595, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103595
D. Rodrik, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400888900
R. Baldwin, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv24w655w
World Trade Organization (WTO), World Trade Statistical Review 2023, 2023.
C. Y. Lee, “US-China Trade War and its Impact on Global Supply Chains,” Glob. Policy, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 45–57, 2021.
J. Smith and W. Tan, “Global Trade in the Post-Pandemic Era: Patterns and Policies,” J. Int. Econ., vol. 139, p. 103601, 2023.
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook: Navigating Global Headwinds, 2023.
L. Zhou and H. Liao, “The Economic Ripple Effect of US-China Trade Tensions,” Asia Pac. Econ. Rev., vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 215–233, 2022.
S. Few, Show Me the Numbers: Designing Tables and Graphs to Enlighten, 2nd ed. Burlingame, CA: Analytics Press, 2021.
A. Kirk, Data Visualization: A Handbook for Data Driven Design, 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publ., 2019.
R. I. Khaldun, “Analisis Perdagangan Internasional Indonesia pada Kebijakan ACFTA dan AKFTA [Indonesia's International Trade Analysis on ACFTA and AKFTA Policies],” J. Simki Econ., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 11–19, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29407/jse.v7i1.242
D. Ricardo, “From the principles of political economy and taxation,” in Readings in the Economics of the Division of Labor: The Classical Tradition, pp. 127–130, 2005. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812701275_0014
M. E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York, NY: Free Press, 1990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-11336-1
P. D. Fajgelbaum, P. K. Goldberg, P. J. Kennedy, and A. K. Khandelwal, “The return to protectionism,” Q. J. Econ., vol. 135, no. 1, pp. 1–55, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz036
R. C. Feenstra, Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 2004.
M. Amiti, S. J. Redding, and D. E. Weinstein, “The impact of the 2018 trade war on US prices and welfare,” J. Econ. Perspect., vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 187–210, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.187
C. P. Bown, US–China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chartbook. Washington, DC: Peterson Inst. Int. Econ., 2022.
S. J. Evenett and J. Fritz, The Global Trade Report: Rebuilding Post-COVID Supply Chains. London, U.K.: CEPR, 2021.
T. Liu and W. T. Woo, “US-China trade war: Economic conflict and global implications,” Asian Econ. Papers, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1–24, 2022.
F. A. Setianingtiyas, “Proteksionisme AS terhadap Komoditas Aluminium dan Baja Indonesia Pada Masa Perang Dagang AS-China [US Protectionism for Indonesian Aluminum and Steel Commodities During the US-China Trade War],” J. Pena Wimaya, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 21–44, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31315/jpw.v2i1.5297
S. Anwar and F. C. Basri, “Trade war and its consequences for emerging markets: The case of Indonesia,” Bull. Indones. Econ. Stud., vol. 55, no. 3, pp. 367–386, 2019.
M. P. Todaro and S. C. Smith, Economic Development, 13th ed. London, U.K.: Pearson Educ., 2020.
D. Handayani, A. Putri, and A. Soelistyo, “Analisis dampak perang dagang terhadap kinerja ekspor Indonesia [Analysis of the impact of the trade war on Indonesia's export performance],” J. Econ. Pembang. Indones., vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 55–72, 2020.
A. A. Yusuf and A. Octaviani, “Peluang Ekspor Indonesia di Tengah Perang Dagang AS–China: Tinjauan Sektor Mikro [Indonesia's Export Opportunities in the Midst of the US-China Trade War: A Micro Sector Overview],” Indones. J. Int. Econ., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 25–39, 2021.
D. C. Lantu, M. Rosmiati, S. Herliana, R. Chaerudin, and N. Lawiyah, “The Competitiveness of Indonesian Craft as Creative Industries in the Global Market: A SWOT Analysis Approach,” in Proc. 6th Global Conf. Bus., Manag. Entrepreneurship (GCBME 2021), July 2022, pp. 497–501. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.220701.091
P. Krugman, “Increasing returns and economic geography,” J. Polit. Econ., vol. 99, no. 3, pp. 483–499, 1991. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/261763
LPEM FEB UI, Kajian Dampak Perang Dagang Terhadap Investasi dan Ekspor Indonesia [Study of the Impact of the Trade War on Indonesian Investment and Exports]. Jakarta: Univ. Indonesia, 2023.
J. Parbo, “Negotiating Trade Conflicts: A Case Study of the US-China Phase One Deal,” J. Glob. Trade Policy, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 122–135, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1146394466
NewsTarget, “US raises tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, sparking global economic concerns,” Apr. 15, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.newstarget.com/2025-04-15-us-china-trade-conflict-drives-economic-deterioration.html
Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), “USTR Announces Compliance Review of Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement,” Jan. 2025. [Online]. Available: https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2025/january/ustr-announces-compliance-review-economic-and-trade-agreement-between-government-united-states
Business Insider, “Experts weigh who has the upper hand in the US-China trade war,” Apr. 18, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-weigh-who-has-upper-hand-us-china-trade-war-2025-4
Reuters, “Trump optimistic about reaching new deal with China, White House says,” Apr. 11, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-optimistic-reaching-deal-with-china-white-house-says-2025-04-11/
Reuters, “China opposes any deals between US and other nations at its expense,” Apr. 21, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/world/china-opposes-any-deals-between-us-other-nations-its-expense-2025-04-21/
The Bridge Chronicle, “China hits back with 125% retaliatory tariffs on US products,” Apr. 17, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.thebridgechronicle.com/news/us-china-trade-war-april-2025
US News, “China changes top trade negotiator amid tariff war with US,” Apr. 15, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-04-15/china-changes-top-trade-negotiator-amid-tariff-war-with-us
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Maria Joy Casano Iglesia, Zafar Khan, Ifta Firdausa Nuzula

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.





