Beyond Enrolment Parity: A Secondary-Data Analysis of Girls’ Progression and Completion in Ugandan Secondary Education

Abstract

Uganda’s recent education statistics show near gender parity in aggregate enrolment, but parity in school counts does not demonstrate timely progression or completion. This study analyzes secondary data from the 2025 Baseline Education Census, national and international reports, and program monitoring to examine girls’ movement into and through secondary education. The census recorded 2,008,133 secondary learners, including 1,069,855 girls (53.3%) and 938,278 boys. However, complementary evidence indicates that 69% of adolescent girls have never attended secondary school, only 37% of enrolled lower-secondary-age girls are actually placed in lower secondary, and about 30% of secondary students leave before completion. Approximately 24% of girls aged 10–19 have experienced pregnancy, a major risk for interruption under conditions of stigma, care responsibilities, and weak re-entry support. Aggregate national parity also conceals geographic differences. Illustrative BEC district data show female shares of secondary enrolment ranging from 59.6% in Mbarara to 40.9% in Nebbi. Program evidence suggests that bundled responses are promising. Girls Empowering Girls reported that 95% of participants completing primary school transitioned to secondary and 76% of former dropouts returned, while the 2025–2028 CashPlus program targets 5,000 vulnerable girls across seven northern districts. A concentric protection-to-progression model is proposed, combining financial protection with safe and inclusive schools, re-entry and reproductive-health support, mentoring, community engagement, and data-enabled early warning. Because the evidence is aggregate and program monitoring is not equivalent to causal evaluation, results should not be interpreted as national impact estimates. Uganda should complement gender-parity indicators with age-appropriate progression, attendance, interruption, re-entry, and completion measures.